What will be the world's population in 2020
Increasingly, forecasts of resource declines are published in the news. Water reserves are decreasing in some regions, glaciers are melting in others, threatening to turn the continents into the ocean. The amount of oil, coal, gas, and other minerals — the main sources of industrial development — is decreasing. Nevertheless, the world’s population continues to grow from year to year and, according to UN forecasts, will break all past records in the near future.
Earth Population Forecast by 2020
Recently, the number of people inhabiting the globe has been growing every year by an average of 1.11%. This indicator is higher than it was at the beginning of the 20th century, but lower than the growth that was recorded in 1963. Then the total population of all countries increased by more than 2%.
The impetus for a significant jump in the growth of people was given by industrial development, the success of medicine. If in 1800 one billion people lived on the planet, then by 1930 there are already two, by 1960 - three, and in 2020, according to forecasts, there will be almost 8 billion.
Nowadays, the annual increase in the world's inhabitants is proceeding at a slower pace. It is expected that by 2020 it will be 1%. In the future, it will also fall, reaching 0.5% by 2050. And, if in 2015 the Earth's population amounted to 7 billion 383. million according to the UN, then by 2020 it will amount to 7 billion 795 million A in 2050 it will reach a population of 9 billion. 771,822,753 people, and by the end of the century it may cross the 11 billionth milestone. According to other forecasts, the figures may be different, but the growth trend, although at a slower pace, will continue.
Birth rate dynamics by country
In accordance with ongoing demographic studies and projections, population growth in developed countries will slow, in some it will be zero or negative. It is expected that the main increase in such states will be mainly due to migrants.
The developed countries
With a high degree of probability, a negative increase, expects Italy and Japan. The largest percentage increase will occur in the USA, Israel, Australia. The total number of people will change slightly - from 1.2 billion people in 2010 to 1.25 billion in 2020, i.e. only 0.4%. And if in 1950 in these states 32.3% of all the inhabitants of the Earth lived, then in 2020 their share will be 17%, and in 2050 they will total 13.6%. It is noted that by the middle of the century, growth will be zero or even negative, in the future it will be somewhat leveled.
Russia expects a decrease in population. The trend will continue until the end of the century. If in 2015 it was in ninth place in terms of the number of people and retained it in 2020, then by the end of the XXI century. she can only be in twenty-first place.
In first place in terms of population in 2020 will be China, in second India. According to forecasts, approximately 1.4 billion people will live in them. Significant growth will also show Indonesia and Brazil. These two states will take fourth and fifth in terms of population, skipping ahead of the United States. The average growth of four highly populated developing countries can reach 3.7% over 5 years.
A significant change in the number of inhabitants will show the 49 poorest countries. Their population will grow almost three times and amount to 2.5 billion people. This is exactly 2 times more than the population of developed countries. The trend will be such that if in 2013 their share in the total number of residents was 12.5%, then by 2020 it will increase to 17%, and by the middle of the century it will reach 19%.
Demographics by continent: statistics and forecasts
The demographic forecast by country determines the general trends by continent:
- Most of the inhabitants, as now, will be in Asian countries. This continent will be home to more than half of earthlings in 2020, about 5 billion inhabitants will live here.
- In second place will be Africa. By 2040, the population will reach 2 billion. Such dynamics will continue until the end of the century - then more than 4 billion people will live here, which is 3 more than now.
- Third place will be taken by South and Central America. The population here continues to grow. By the end of the century, about 800 million people will live here. It is believed that this indicator is the highest for the continent.
- The fourth will house Europe, although until the 90s. last century, the continent was in second place. In 1996, Africa overtook him. According to the researchers, the number of just over 700 million people who live in Europe now is the highest for this part of the world. In these countries, population aging will continue.
- In fifth place is North America. It is expected that by 2020 more than 330 million people will live here, and by the end of the century there are already about 450.
General information is confirmed by the total fertility rate. In developed countries, it is less than 2.1 children per woman, in developing countries it will exceed it. In the poorest, the ratio can reach 5.
In 2020, population growth will continue. Statistics note, however, that it will be most significant in developing Asian, Latin American and poorest African countries. In developed countries, the number of inhabitants will increase slightly.
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