Forecast for 2020 in Russia
The adverse external conditions of the world stage continue to have a negative impact on the Russian economy. According to analysts, the current tense situation in the East and the US trade war with China may result in a significant currency fluctuation in 2020. How exactly the course will change is 100% impossible to predict. However, leading analytical agencies and government departments responsible for the economic development of the country are quite capable of catching the main trends for the coming years.
Possible dynamics of the American dollar
The welfare of Russian citizens depends not only on how much the main reserve world currency will cost, not only in 2020, but also in the subsequent period. The growth of the dollar against the ruble instantly responds to the Russian economy with crisis manifestations. Despite the active implementation of the state program on import substitution, the vast majority of goods sold in Russia are still overseas production. The lion's share of domestic manufacturers are forced to purchase components "from behind the hill." Accordingly, with the growth of the US currency, prices in Russian stores will climb up.
On the other hand, a strong dollar and a weak ruble are beneficial for the state treasury. Contracts for the supply of products pursuant to state contracts of the defense sector and the oil and gas industry are for the most part concluded in American currency. Therefore, with the strengthening of the dollar, the occupancy rate of the treasury increases. For the same reason, the growth of the US monetary unit is very pleasing to industrial enterprises that carry out work on the order of the homeland or third-party states. Although the government is determined to gradually move away from the dollar when conducting international settlements in most long-term contracts, the price of goods and services is agreed exactly in the US currency.
USD quotes are influenced by political and economic events on the world stage, as well as the state of the US economy. The better things are in the American state, the stronger the dollar, and vice versa. From external factors, the price of oil has a special effect on the USD. The dependence is that - the more expensive "black gold", the cheaper the dollar. Unforeseen circumstances in the form of natural disasters or "revolutions" in other countries can lead to an instant increase in the price of the dollar, or vice versa - complete collapse. Given all of the above facts, economists predict a scenario for the change in the value of the monetary unit for subsequent years.
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the situation in 2020 in the foreign exchange market can develop in three scenarios:
- basic - the dollar will amount to 82.5 rubles .;
- conservative - the dollar will amount to 84.2 rubles .;
- target - the dollar will amount to 75.6 rubles.
Experts from the Ministry of Economic Development reckon that the growth in consumer prices in 2020 will be kept at 3.4%. Low inflation, according to experts, will contribute to the stability of the ruble. The average rate of the US national currency according to forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development will be 63.8 rubles. Experts of the "Development Center" of the Higher School of Economics share this point of view. For one American dollar, according to economists, in 2020 will have to pay 65.3 rubles. Analysts at the St. Petersburg investment company Income suggest that if Washington tightens sanctions, the cost of one dollar by early 2020 will amount to 73.5 rubles.
The cost of the second most important reserve currency has little effect on the Russian economy. At the same time, Russians consider the European currency reliable and keep the lion's share of their savings in euros. The value of the euro is tightly tied to the American dollar. Since € and $ are the main competitors in the currency market, their value changes inversely. The depreciation of the US currency causes increased demand for the euro, which increases its value, and vice versa. But nevertheless, the change in the ECB interest rate and the introduction of various economic stimulus measures have the greatest impact on the euro. With a decrease in the interest rate, the euro falls, while with an increase it rises.
Most experts believe that investing their money against the backdrop of aggravated relations in the European Union is a risky business. It is not known how deposits in European currency opened outside the EU will be converted. According to the methodologists of the company PrognozEx, in the first quarter of 2020 there will be a growth in the European currency. The average monthly increase will be about 3%. Subsequently, the growth trend will be replaced by a prolonged decline until the end of the year. According to the agency, in December 2020, the cost of one euro will not exceed 67 rubles. There is an opposite opinion of analysts that according to the results of 2020, the euro against the ruble will reach the level of 84 rubles.
What awaits the Chinese yuan
The national currency of China has long been among the five most sought-after world currencies. Yuan is especially relevant for close, friendly relations between Russia and China. Contracts for the supply of various products are estimated at billions of rubles. Such fruitful cooperation led to the decision of the Russian and Chinese governments to gradually abandon the dollar in favor of settlements in rubles and yuan. This will reduce the dependence of bilateral settlements on the influence of third states. But de-dollarization and the transition to the Russian-Chinese currency cannot be instantaneous, it will take some time. In addition, the price standard for goods has been tied to the US currency for many years.
According to forecasts of most economists and scientists, the value of the renminbi in 2020 will not change dramatically. The course of Chinese "people's money" is clearly controlled by the People's Bank of China. Every day on the official portal, the Chinese Central Bank publishes the recommended price value of the renminbi against other currencies. In case of a change in the value of the currency by more than 2% of the declared value, the bank adjusts the value with available financial instruments. According to PrognozEx, the value of the renminbi at the beginning of 2020 will be about 89.33 rubles, and by the end of the year the maximum value is unlikely to exceed 100.05 rubles.