Mortgage in 2020: interest rate
For many Russian families, a mortgage in 2020 can be a real solution to the housing problem in the absence of personal savings to make such a purchase. But these plans will be far from being realized by everyone, despite the fact that the state does not intend to abandon programs to compensate part of the cost of housing loans for privileged categories of citizens. Unfavorable conditions and high interest rates at which banks charge interest to mortgage borrowers can prevent this. However, according to a number of experts, next year the situation may change and banks, fulfilling the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, will reduce the cost of housing loans to 8% per annum.
What may affect the size of interest rates
Factor number 1. It is possible that the mortgage interest rate in 2020 may decrease significantly, which will be able to take advantage of the Russians who plan to purchase housing at the expense of borrowed funds.
And this is even taking into account the fact that at the beginning of 2019, banks conducted an audit and updating of rates, which contributed to their increase by 0.5 percentage points. But the change in lending conditions only spurred the demand for mortgages: fearing a further increase in value, citizens began to actively issue loans for the purchase of housing in order to manage to get cheaper borrowed funds. At the same time, consumers could not ignore the announced increase in the cost of square meters in the primary market: as developers assure, this will be inevitable after the transition to project financing, which should happen in the short term.
Factor number 2. When forming the conditions for lending on a mortgage in 2020, banks are forced to take into account the current value of the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
At the moment, the value of this indicator is 7.25%, but it is already known that in the second half of the year it will be reduced to 7.0%, which will enable banks to reconsider the cost of housing loans.
Factor number 3. High inflation also does not contribute to lower mortgage rates.
In the medium term, in the absence of negative external factors and macroeconomic shocks, the inflation rate may decline, which will be another prerequisite for the cheapening of borrowed funds. Moreover, Russians will be able to issue housing loans at 9% in large system banks already in the second half of 2019, and a mortgage in 2020, according to experts, will be issued at 8% per annum.
Government Mortgage Plans
The Government of the Russian Federation has repeatedly stated its readiness to provide support to citizens who need to improve their living conditions, which became especially important after the worsening economic situation in the country. According to the announced plans, the volume of mortgage lending in the near future should be increased by more than 2 times - up to 6.2 trillion. rub., since at the moment this figure is only 3 trillion. But this will not be possible at current rates, even despite the operation of social programs for mortgage lending.
In general, the situation on the credit market is quite tense, as the debt of citizens on debt obligations is only growing. This can be explained by the total increase in consumer prices, when most of the budget is spent on food and operating expenses. And under such conditions, banks are unlikely to want to increase lending and will act more carefully when considering loan applications.
Even in conditions of a budget deficit, the government does not intend to abandon social programs, due to which lending volumes will increase. In particular, on the instructions of the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, a supplementary financing was even laid down for a military mortgage in 2020, and starting from 2024, such a funded system will fully provide housing for Russian troops.The government will not refuse to support young families to whom housing loans will be provided on favorable terms. And this is not counting the opportunity to use maternity capital to pay the down payment or cover part of the current debt, which also increases the availability of mortgages in 2020, contrary to the negative forecasts of individual analysts.
The government is extremely uninterested in raising the key rate, since after this the banks will be forced to revise the cost of loans issued. But, if this is dictated by the market situation, the Central Bank will definitely make such a decision that it will delay the implementation of the plan to increase the volume of mortgage lending for an indefinite period.
The current actions of the regulator significantly impede the process of implementing government plans, as experts of the PF Capital consulting company are confident. If the situation does not improve, then the bankers will be forced to adequately respond to the new conditions for carrying out lending activities and raise rates, which will affect the volume of issuance. Then the main driver of growth will be special state programs (for example, a military mortgage, which in 2020 will be financed under new conditions), unless the government decides to reduce them to save budget funds.
According to German Gref, Sberbank offers a favorable mortgage and does not lack clients. This can be explained not only by competitive conditions, but also by the reputation of the state bank. Gref is sure that consumers should not rely on cheap loans until 2019. But he does not exclude the possibility that a mortgage in 2020 can be issued at 9% or even 8% if the Central Bank reduces the key rate on which the cost of credit resources depends.
More skeptical is Mikhail Khazin, who heads the Economic Research Foundation. He doubts that the government will be able to implement its plans without using direct leverage, and the situation can be corrected only by subsidizing interest rates at the expense of budgetary funds. Using this scheme, citizens will be able to save money when paying monthly payments in the process of paying off a mortgage in 2020. And, judging by the latest news, the government may consider such an option to support mortgage borrowers if money is allocated from the state budget for implementation.